2011, the global market need to focus on the four elements

 With the launch of a new round of Fed
quantitative easing, emerging markets, whether caused by hyperinflation spotlight. To control domestic inflation expectations, the People's Bank of China has repeatedly raised the deposit reserve ratio hike is heard rumors, but also indirectly affect the fourth quarter of A shares and Hong Kong, state-owned enterprises, red chips performance. In 2010, the BRIC countries China is the fastest growing in the GDP (estimated at 10%, Russia is only about 4%), the lowest inflation rates (CPI was 4.4% in October, India has close to 10%), but the stock market performance is most as expected, why?

One possible explanation is that, according to investment bank Morgan Stanley estimates, the recent record of international capital has been a continuous 28 weeks into the emerging markets, and to prevent the inflow of hot money in China's capital controls and the implementation of the QFII investment quota restrictions, and doomed to A shares can not fully enjoy this round of

years ago, part of the shares is expected to soar! Confidential! Market institutions will soon be reversed capital flows have changed dramatically! Main layout
money is plotting a new Outlook 2011, we are cautiously optimistic about the market overall is still the main reasons: first, in the wide currency, tight fiscal context, the major countries in Europe and America continued modest recovery, the probability of the second bottom is not the global economy; Second, the current European and American manufacturing spare capacity is still high, in the developed countries against deflation , the process of inflation in emerging markets, global occurrence of the first half of 2008, as the probability of hyperinflation is not large, so tightening of macroeconomic policy in emerging markets the risk of a hard landing caused by the relative control; Third, the U.S. GDP growth in 2011 Although expected to remain at 2.5%, but not much help to reduce unemployment, while the European Central Bank to eradicate PIIGS debt, the future may also be purchased to increase the scale of public debt is estimated that during the year did not see a rate hike and the G3 economies Ultra-loose monetary policy delisting; Fourth, the stock market last year after a strong rebound in overseas markets in 2010 is still 5-10% increase in general, this part of the capital gains play a positive role in stimulating consumption. S & P 500 companies expected an increase of approximately 30% of earnings, balance sheet repair increased with an increase in future capital expenditure to increase job confidence.

the same time, be concerned about the risks: first, the Fed announced the QE2, the U.S. exchange rate index was approaching the lows after the financial crisis, reflecting the investors of the concerns. The current U.S. economic growth was good in Europe, Japan, but the core inflation rate for 7 months, less than 1%, even lower than the Fed target 1.5-2%. In view of Japan's Observed recently in Seoul at the G20 summit, Europe and the United States can not rule out the game on the exchange rate will lead to ECB anti-inflation as a primary objective. In response to the edge of the debt crisis of national sovereignty, although the acquisition has increased the size of public debt, but also recovery from the commercial banking system liquidity, the future European banks do not rule out a new round of stress tests; third, the balance of Japan's GDP, public debt has reached 200 % to control the swelling budget deficit must be taken to tighten policy, which could lead to economic growth from 2010 to 3% to 1%. Japan's nominal rate of inflation, though still maintaining positive, but the core inflation rate turned negative since early 2009, and maintained for nearly two years, how to avoid the next Korean geopolitical risks.

look back on the domestic macro, although the market generally expected December CPI down the chain, but the 5.1% last month, boosted by the coming year base period, control of 2011 annual inflation rate remained at 4% challenges. From the microscopic point of view, 2011 A shares and Hong Kong stock market forecast earnings growth of 22%, 16%, the investment will be around the theme of Next five years, China actively adjust the economic structure, accelerate the transformation process of economic development, the role played by social capital is improved, according to the State Council promulgated the threshold and pattern of capital into the industry, private investment in water conservancy construction is expected, value-added telecommunications services, medical services, culture and tourism and leisure industry, trade and business, industry, construction and other areas of new energy development effort.

Looking into the new year, whether domestic or overseas markets, the risks and opportunities are all co-exist, the proposed general investment in a balanced asset allocation can grasp the principle of the single market to hedge against volatile short-term investment risk.